Distressed Debt

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As I was saying in my last commentary, it’s time to stay calm and carry on in a market that is flashing green, red and yellow signals simultaneously.  These are market conditions in which nimbleness will be rewarded.  Whether the economy is going to continue to grow, albeit in a very low gear, or whether we’re going to have a recession of one species or another, things are not soon going to return to the BEFORE.
Continue Reading Get Ready for the Distressed Debt Wave (HONEST!)

I had the opportunity to interview Sam Zell last week on an iGlobal podcast. You can see it here. Fascinating.  Okay, Mr. Zell might not be the undisputed master of 1.4 billion souls whose thoughts are obligatory reading, but his Thoughts should be accorded considerable weight by us denizens of the US economy.  There’s a real difference between those who bloviate for a living (which would include me) and those who actually deploy capital based on their views and analysis of markets.  I’ll pay considerably more attention to the latter.
Continue Reading The Thoughts of (Chairman) Zell

Here is something helpful that has surfaced amidst the fallout, pain and confusion of the global COVID-19 crisis.  The implementation date for the all-too-simple in theory but not-simple-at-all in practice CECL accounting standard has been pushed back by the passage of the CARES Act for banks until the COVID-19 national emergency declared by the president ends or December 31, 2020, whichever is earlier.  In addition, an interim final rule released by the FRB, OCC and FDIC on Friday, March 27th, now provides an option to delay the effects of CECL on regulatory capital for two years (in addition to the original three-year transition period for banks required to adopt CECL during their 2020 fiscal year).  Banks opting to use both forms of relief would be subject to a modified transition period which would be reduced by the amount of quarters CECL was delayed due to the CARES Act.  No relief was provided for non-banks who are otherwise required to follow CECL.
Continue Reading CECL: The Ugly Pig Running Out of Lipstick

The spread of COVID-19 has created a new reality for the hospitality industry. As of March 25, the CDC reported 54,453 confirmed cases in the U.S., and the number is expected to grow exponentially. In the hopes of slashing infection rates, governments have implemented international travel bans, shelter-in-place orders and other restrictive measures. The second-most popular tourist destination in the world, Spain, has ordered all its hotels and other tourist accommodations to be closed.
Continue Reading Beds without Heads: Hotels in the Era of the Coronavirus

Beany & Cecil was a cartoon.  The Current Expected Credit Loss accounting rules, better known as CECL, which the FASB is insisting will go into effect at the beginning of next year for publicly traded banks and lenders and a year later for all other GAAP reporting entities is not.  Now, heaven forfend that I suggest that the work of the Financial Accounting Standards Board is cartoonish, but there’s a parallel in this pairing of harmless and obscured menace worth noting. 
Continue Reading Beany & CECL

You can never go wrong starting off a commentary with a butchered bit from the Bard, right?  “Now is the winter of our discontent” spake Richard III, an unamiable leader perhaps reminding us all today of our unamiable governing class.  Old Gloucester rhymed to presage war and chaos.  Apparently, all that happened because the poor dear couldn’t buy himself a date.  But hey, chaos, war, desolation, burning and pillaging, etc., aren’t all bad, that is, if you are equipped to enjoy the carnage.

And now, back to the market.  What am I rambling on about?  Distressed debt opportunities are coming back.  This is the silver lining, at least for some, in the cracks beginning to develop in our long, Goldilocks credit cycle.  A slowdown is not here yet, to be sure, but it’s time to sharpen the knives and begin to think about our opportunities. 
Continue Reading The Winter of Our Discontent May Be Over (If you are a Distressed Debt Investor)

An increase of defaults and rising debts have Business Development Companies (BDCs) concerned as the trend may lead to a number of distressed credits within their portfolios. Specialists from Dechert and Houlihan Lokey will address these concerns and potential solutions which matter to BDCs during a webinar taking place on Wednesday, September 9. The webinar will focus on structuring issues  (e.g., portfolio eligibility, valuations, MIP implications, etc.), tax considerations (e.g., distribution requirements, qualifying or good income test, asset diversification, etc.) as well as bankruptcy and restructuring concerns.
Continue Reading BDCs As Creditors of Distressed Companies: What You Need to Know

euroFor want of a baker, a job was lost.  For want of a job, the economy was lost.  For want of an economy, the banking system collapsed.  For want of a banking system – well, ultimately Grexit.

Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, (China), Grexit, Grexit. The Greeks will be fine, right?  There is no such thing as contagion, right?  Your lips to God’s ear, please. As I write this, the Greek Parliament has approved the bailout and it looks like an immediate Grexit is off the table, (although the Germans are none too pleased)!  Wonderful.
Continue Reading Grexit Deferred: The End of the Beginning for Greece?