Credit Crisis

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Well, it’s been an interesting week and a bit. First Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were closed by their respective State banking authorities with the FDIC stepping in as receiver and then the extraordinary action by the Fed and Treasury to address liquidity concerns and a bunch of rather disingenuous assurances from the great and…

I wrote a week or two back about my expectation that significant economic dislocation awaits us.  I still think that.  The morning after I published, hordes (ok, maybe not hordes) of PhD Villeins were outside my house with pitchforks and burning torches, loudly asserting that I had wildly overstated the likelihood of material distress in the marketplace.  “No, no, no, the White House has assured us of a soft landing and a soft landing we’ll have.”  (The Council of Economic Advisers, not surprisingly, if professionally embarrassing, seem to think so, too.)  And, while inflation is bad, it’s not that bad.  (I don’t yet need a wheel barrel to buy bread!)  No recession, they perorate loudly and insistently.  We’ll be back to 2% inflation, sub 4% unemployment and 2% GNP growth by Q4 of 2023!
Continue Reading Life (and Opportunity) in the Time of Considerable Government Malfeasance

As I was saying in my last commentary, it’s time to stay calm and carry on in a market that is flashing green, red and yellow signals simultaneously.  These are market conditions in which nimbleness will be rewarded.  Whether the economy is going to continue to grow, albeit in a very low gear, or whether we’re going to have a recession of one species or another, things are not soon going to return to the BEFORE.
Continue Reading Get Ready for the Distressed Debt Wave (HONEST!)

I had the opportunity to interview Sam Zell last week on an iGlobal podcast. You can see it here. Fascinating.  Okay, Mr. Zell might not be the undisputed master of 1.4 billion souls whose thoughts are obligatory reading, but his Thoughts should be accorded considerable weight by us denizens of the US economy.  There’s a real difference between those who bloviate for a living (which would include me) and those who actually deploy capital based on their views and analysis of markets.  I’ll pay considerably more attention to the latter.
Continue Reading The Thoughts of (Chairman) Zell

The spread of COVID-19 has created a new reality for the hospitality industry. As of March 25, the CDC reported 54,453 confirmed cases in the U.S., and the number is expected to grow exponentially. In the hopes of slashing infection rates, governments have implemented international travel bans, shelter-in-place orders and other restrictive measures. The second-most popular tourist destination in the world, Spain, has ordered all its hotels and other tourist accommodations to be closed.
Continue Reading Beds without Heads: Hotels in the Era of the Coronavirus

We seem all atwitter about the notion that a recession is about to happen; almost aroused by the prospect. A NASCAR crowd just waiting for a crash? Or is this a Waiting for Godot thing, as the chattering class bloviates excitedly, pointlessly and largely cluelessly? Maybe it’s the 24/7 news cycle at work… Did we run out of car crashes, shootings and natural disasters and needed something to rivet and terrify the unwashed? Or is this just politics? For obvious and entirely understandable reasons, every Democratic wannabe presidential candidate is desperately hoping a recession will arrive before the election. But to be honest, a lot of serious types motivated neither by a political gloom premium, weak ratings nor an affinity for NASCAR, seem to be talking it up as well, clinging to the recession on the doorstop narrative, no matter what (God, guns and macroeconomic theory?).
Continue Reading Panting for a Recession

A new OnPoint from Dechert’s Employee Benefits and Executive Compensation team discusses a recent ruling from a federal court in the Southern District of New York. There, a pension plan that had acquired notes issued by a vehicle invested in a pool of sub-prime residential mortgage-backed securities is arguing that the vehicle’s assets are “plan…

After an evening checking out my various high school and college yearbooks for any troublesome content, and checking Mom’s photo albums (I’m good on the yearbooks, but there were a couple cowboy and Indian pics from when I was about 7, that could be troublesome), it got me thinking hard about the power of words, images and narratives. Words will hurt you. Images will hurt you. Narratives will hurt you.

Our industry has to pay attention to the power of words, images and narratives; and particularly right now as the 2020 election cycle gets into high gear.

High school tweets, Texas bar admission applications, and college papers apparently can now ruin careers. Now some may say that’s a good thing and some may say it’s terrible, but let’s face it, it is a thing. In this world of hyper-connectivity, words and images take flight instantaneously and can spread around the market, around a polity, a community or around the globe in a heartbeat. And they never go away. Moreover, there seems to be a view in currency that forgiveness is not possible and balance is no longer relevant and that people are defined by their worst. A sort of the lowest common denominator. Well, heaven forbid that I take sides here, but think, if you will, for a moment on Winston Churchill: Gallipoli, Edward VIII, resistance to Indian independence and certainly some racism towards the people of the Indian subcontinent, but still the savior of the West. Bad outcome? Could happen today?
Continue Reading Sticks and Stones May Break My Bones, But Words Really Matter

My, my, what a couple of weeks.  People, don’t you understand that I’m trying to run a business here?  Is a recession on the doorstep or is that a 2022 thing?  Are things really bad, or really good?  How am I supposed to stay dispassionate and analytic when the stock market gyrates and the drumbeat of portentous news never stops?  The worst December in the market since the Depression says The Financial Times!  It’s very annoying and I feel very much put upon.

All of this has got me thinking, are we ignoring Macro?  Are we not seeing what’s actually in front of us?  Not seeing the Big Stuff?  There is surely enough disturbing things out there to get and hold our attention.  The stock market continues to oscillate widely, the 10-year Treasury Rate is now well below 3%, volume is up and every time another headline crosses the ticker, everything changes again.  Is our trade dispute with China existential?  Is Prime Minister May in or out – happy or sad?  Is Boris Johnson having a good hair day?  The Italians are leaping around and gesticulating broadly, outraged now about how France may be getting a pass on budget discipline.  If France starts to cheat (again), can the center hold?  Japan is building an aircraft carrier…think about it.  In China, some young general suggested it might be a good idea to shoot at an American warship in international waters.  There’s a great idea.  The Donald continues to tweet and we almost had a smack down in the oval office between the President, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer just last week. 
Continue Reading Ignoring Macro…Or Are We as Smart as a Horse?

The Wall Street Journal reminded us this month that it was ten years ago, August 9, 2007, that the first regulatory domino in The Great Recession fell as BNP Paribas froze a series of resi investment funds for lack of a functioning market to value the securities. One could quibble about whether The Great Recession could be so precisely dated. Were there the blackened equivalent of green shoots earlier in the year? Did The Great Recession really only begin when the trouble in the subprime resi market morphed into all other credit markets? But that’s merely a cavil. August 9, 2007 is, for me, the date the world changed.
Continue Reading A Tale of Two Years; This Time Will Be Different