Winter is surely coming. One might hope it will arrive without the sorcery, murder, mayhem and intrigue of that memorable HBO show, but surely it will be freighted by its own quantum of trauma and anxiety. Actually, what am I saying? Winter is coming? Winter is already here, but many have elected to not
Economic Recovery
Funny Times
By Rick Jones on
What funny times in which we live; an observation perhaps highly dependent upon your notion of fun. Maybe curious is the better description. Daunting? Frightening? Opaque and unknowable? All probably good descriptions. True of politics. True of business.
Sticking to business, it’s hard to get conviction around anything right now. Nonetheless, we must. Everyone needs…
Sometimes, It Really Is a Duck: What If Things Are About to Go Bad?
By Rick Jones on
Conspiracy theory fans, tin-foil hat wearers everywhere, Nostradamus wannabes, the broadly unhinged and, of course, our professional purveyors of doom and gloom roosting on evening cable news see patterns where there are none, embrace straight-line projections based on disparate and unrelated data and loudly and often shrilly bleat that the end is nigh. That’s all…
To Hell with Predictions; I’m Embracing My Inner Fabulist This Year
By Rick Jones on
Each year about this time, I sit down and try to cobble together predictions for the performance of the economy and the performance of the CRE market in the coming year. Of course, I’m wrong every time. It’s not for lack of trying. I do try to think hard about where we’ve come, what things…
Why Don’t (Enough) Investors Like CRE CLO?
By Rick Jones on
Why don’t enough investors like CRE CLO securities? They all really should, and it would be terrifically helpful to the market if more of them did so. (Okay, terrifically helpful to me.)
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Inflection Point? How Much Change Are We Really Facing?
By Rick Jones on
I am trying to figure out how much I care, as a businessman (as opposed to an actual living, breathing human being), about the chaos swirling around us. Every day’s news seems more the stuff of a dramatic conceit of someone’s next thriller than reality. Throw in a car chase and some sex, and we’ve got a movie. (The North Carolina sexting scandal doesn’t really get us there for this purpose.)
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There’s a New Black Swan in Town and It’s After Us!
By Rick Jones on
We have virtually no bandwidth to deal with anything other than the pandemic, do we? The marches of every conversation begin with “you’re okay, I trust” and end with “take care” and now we really mean that. It’s exhausting, isn’t it? It’s hard to even remember the “time before.”
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The Thoughts of (Chairman) Zell
By Rick Jones on
I had the opportunity to interview Sam Zell last week on an iGlobal podcast. You can see it here. Fascinating. Okay, Mr. Zell might not be the undisputed master of 1.4 billion souls whose thoughts are obligatory reading, but his Thoughts should be accorded considerable weight by us denizens of the US economy. There’s a real difference between those who bloviate for a living (which would include me) and those who actually deploy capital based on their views and analysis of markets. I’ll pay considerably more attention to the latter.
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COVID-19 and the Great Shutdown – Some Comparisons with the Great Recession
By Jana Zupikova, Brandon Ovington & Crunched Credit on
As we continue to do business in this new world, we have been working with clients to address some of the impacts of COVID-19 on their industries. One point of consideration that comes up is the unprecedented nature of the ensuing economic crisis on the real economy. As part of Dechert’s COVID-19 Coronavirus Business Impact…
Playing with Broken Toys in Coronavirus Land
By Rick Jones on
I’ve been offline for a bit. An amalgam of writer’s block caused by the enormity of the Coronavirus mess – what can be said that’s useful – and the consequence of being wildly busy as everyone across financial markets tries to pivot to the new reality. Unburdened by any knowledge of science, medicine or epidemiology, I have been marinating in the output of such intellectually distinguished journals as The Sun, The Daily Beast, The Onion, The Mirror, The New York Post and Drudge on the daily ups and downs of our plague, its cost in blood and treasure and the disruption it has caused across all aspects of our life. Consequently, I have opinions but I’ve concluded they’re pretty damn worthless. We’re in uncharted waters, akin to those bits on a medieval map where the cartographers had no clue and wrote: “Here be Dragons.”
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