Credit Crisis

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It’s been a while since we’ve visited Europe in this column, but events, or non-events, cry out for a fly-by. I am reminded of those months of September 1939 to April 1940 when the conflagration that was to be WWII was looming over the western world, yet, on the western front, no shots were fired. Last we wrote, we wondered how long the European community could avoid acknowledging the ultimate denouncement that its economic model of the past half century had failed and simply had to change radically. With sovereign debt continuing to grow and default threatened in Greece and, perhaps, elsewhere, a broad recession, many states with breathtaking levels of unemployment, broken banks, and growing civil unrest, where was the path to normalcy? How could that path not ultimately lead through the breakup of the common currency “as we know it” and to the restoration of national control over monetary policy? But over the past several months, a grand illusion of normalcy has been diligently constructed and nurtured across Europe. If things have not gone terribly well, please, don’t stare. And whatever you do, just don’t tell the European politicians.Continue Reading The Phony War

Any number of banks in the United States have been courting, in a desultory sort of way, the covered bond. The Street has been scratching its head for many years trying to determine whether a U.S. covered bond could be done and, if so, whether it would be good. Congressman Garrett, who certainly can’t be faulted for lack of effort, has repeatedly introduced covered bond legislation, the most recent one of which was captioned the United States Covered Bond Act of 2011. As those with nothing better to do than follow the covered bond sausage-making know, an effective U.S. covered bond market really does require enabling legislation, which we do not have for a number of reasons, including the unremittant hostility of the FDIC.Continue Reading As Covered Bond Markets Retreat

Back to Europe and the Euro.

To misquote President Clinton, it’s the math, stupid. OK, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, as there are political prescriptions that could change the outcome of this tale of woe. As I write this, everyone continues to celebrate the result of the most recent Summit and the alleged breakthrough for the European Union and the Spanish and maybe Italian banks. The announcement that the European Financial Stability Facility, or the European Stability Mechanism, will actually lend directly to the banks in Spain and Italy was a bit of an overachievement for this body and, as I write this, stock markets are surging across the world on the news and spreads are coming in a smidge on the periphery. But, as usual, no details, and I’m not buying it. My bet is that the bloom will come off this rose just as it’s come off following other Summits, promising coordination of fiscal policies leading to a mutualization of the debt. Continue Reading It’s the Math, Stupid

So after another bad news week in Europe, I’m a bit gloomy about the future of the capital markets. As we try to run a business and help our clients, I’ve got this narrative running through my head about Europe. I keep running this movie back and forth in my head hoping it will help me tease out what will be in the last reel. Look, we try to make these blogs contain some bon mots of immediate utility. I’m not sure what follows has any immediate utility, but I hope someone will tell me what I’m missing here.Continue Reading ROME’S BURNING: WHAT AM I MISSING?

Last week, I spoke in London at a conference, “Investing in Bank Assets” sponsored by the Association of Financial Markets in Europe (AFME). The Conference had a titillating, if a tad alarming, subtitle “The European Purge Begins”.

The question is, of course, is it true?  The purge, I mean.   Is there a European purge afoot, and are there massive opportunities to invest in European bank assets? I, for one, certainly hope so. 

Let’s test the case. Those who read this blog regularly will be aware we’ve been chirping about these opportunities for quite some time. Having participated on one side or another in most of the recent European banks’ initiatives to dispose of dollar denominated US assets, we’ve become quite fond of this nascent trend. And, not to bury the lead, we think there is a very large opportunity in the disintermediation from European banks, and a particularly large opportunity with respect to US commercial mortgage loan assets held by our European friends over the next 12 to 24 months. By the way, kudos to AFME, Gilbey Strub, Managing Director for Resolutions and Crisis Management at AFME and her colleagues for putting on a terrific show. It was co-sponsored by Dechert and by Alvarez & Marsal.Continue Reading MORE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN EU BANKLAND

The other week, I was musing in this blog about the likelihood of more AIB and Bank of Ireland type auctions of U.S. Dollar denominated assets by European banks. In the Wall Street Journal, on Friday, September 23rd, the headline was “Banks in France Cut Dollar Loans”. The article focuses on two of France’s biggest banks, BNP Paribas and Société Générale, jettisoning U.S. Dollar denominated assets.

And then, the news about Dexia broke on October 10th. Dexia is a huge French-Belgian bank, though with a lesser profile here in the States than its more famous Parisian and Brussels-based sisters. The French, Belgian and Luxembourgian governments immediately swooped in to guarantee deposits and provide credit support and began chitchatting about a good-bank, bad-bank fix. The reaction in the markets has been curiously muted. Dexia is huge. Its reported balance sheet is more than 500 billion euros. (And, of course, Dexia had been reporting Tier 1 capital of 10% a couple of months ago. How’d that happen? But that’s a different story.)Continue Reading Always Look on the Bright Side of Life: How Dexia’s Failure Could be Good for Capital Formation

Returning from a Labor Day weekend spent cleaning up after Irene, here are some notes as I clean out the desk drawer of Summer 2011: 

  • I spent the first week of August with my family on Martha’s Vineyard as the Dow Jones lost 1000 points, bond spreads blew out, securitized lending ground to a halt and the United States lost its triple-A credit rating. Past that, it seems the market held things together pretty well in my absence.
  • Not altogether unsurprising, but still notable that during the trading days following the U.S. downgrade, treasury yields decreased, leaving some doomsday investors scratching their heads. Of course, the thing about betting on the end of the world is that you can only be right once.
  • The third week of August saw the release of almost simultaneous reports that residential mortgage interest rates hit all-time lows and residential mortgage applications hit 15-year lows.
  • Meanwhile, the FHFA is suing 17 or so of the nation’s largest banks for billions in losses incurred during pre-bubble subprime securitizations. Many analysts are asking when (if?) the U.S. will stop punishing banks.

Continue Reading Summer Winds

What the hell is going on here? I’ve got a business to run, and it’s really annoying that I can’t sort out whether we’re in the early stages of recovery or on the cusp of another train wreck. When Dad taught me to drive, he had to keep saying “Don’t look at where you are but where you’re going.” Good advice. Yet only as long as I look at the road right in front of me do I feel OK. If my eyes wander to the horizon, I get really itchy.

This recovery feels very brittle. Oh, sure, transactional activity is way up. If Dechert’s practice is the first derivative of the broader capital markets (and I think it is), then things have been getting progressively more robust for the better part of a year now. We’re growing, we’re hiring, deals are coming in at a goodly pace. Yet, everyone I know with the slightest capacity for reflection is touchy, to say the least.

So let’s do a S.W.O.T. analysis of where we sit.Continue Reading What in the Hell is Going on Here Anyway?: A SWOT Analysis of the Financial Recovery

As the CMBS market begins to get its feet underneath it, a number of folks have begun to pine for the public markets. Since 2009, every CMBS deal has been issued as a 144A (or otherwise privately placed). The public market is beginning to feel like a memory. While there seems to have been relatively robust demand for product, a number of bankers say that demand is still somewhat constrained in the 144A institutional market place. They fondly remember the benefits of the public market: liquidity, better pricing, a wider investor pool. As the market rebounds, these bankers suggest that it may be time to dust off the shelves.

And so we thought it would be useful to revisit that bid and ask. For this purpose, we’ll assume that the hypothetical banker is right and that there are significant benefits to be obtained by reanimation of the public deal zombie. That’s the bid.

Here’s the ask. First, there’s that pesky little liability issue. The liability exposure for bankers and sponsors in the 144A market is less than in a public (registered) deal. No liability under Sections 11 and 12 of the Securities Act. That liability is generally pretty absolute (as to non-expertized info) subject only to a diligence defense. Liability in the private market is limited to 10b-5. The need to prove scienter and reliance in a 10b-5 action is a significant burden for an aggrieved investor. The difference in exposure to liability is a distinction not to be sniffed at. Yes, of course we always mean to get the disclosure right. But the underlying assets are complex and there’s an undeniable hunger among the plaintiffs’ bar to “discover” disclosure defects where honest folks, acting in good faith, thought adequate disclosure had been made. (Note also how much more ominous the enhanced liability exposure in public deals will be after FinReg and its progeny become law. As disclosure gets more complex and elaborate, the opportunities to stumble into liability grow exponentially.)Continue Reading So You Really Want To Do A Public Deal?