As many of you know, I am retiring from Dechert LLP but anticipate staying active in our industry in my advisory vehicle, Jackstay Investments, LLC.  The firm has graciously given me the domain name CRUNCHEDCREDIT and hence, I will begin to resume publishing my commentaries in CrunchedCredit on an ongoing basis.  You will also be…

I perhaps have a well-earned reputation for an excess of fascination for risks, downside, black swans and other things that prevent the good times from rolling.  Lover of Schadenfreude.  I hope not, but I do often feel compelled to point out risks that seem to be overlooked. 

I could be wrong (shocked…I’m shocked!).  What happens…

Live in Hope…Die in Despair! Will Interest Rates Come Down (Far Enough) This Year?

I sure hope they will. While I’m a member in good standing of the higher-for-longer club, I would love to be convinced that rates are coming down…a lot. I want to believe all those eminent and eminent-adjacent talking heads making…

This is just a short note, with little actual utility, but it’s about something that’s really bothering me. 

Why are we so calm?  What has anesthetized us? 

I’ve had numerous conversations with market-makers in and around our business and many, not all, but many, seem very relaxed about the here and now.  I hear:  Spreads…

Winter is surely coming.  One might hope it will arrive without the sorcery, murder, mayhem and intrigue of that memorable HBO show, but surely it will be freighted by its own quantum of trauma and anxiety.  Actually, what am I saying?  Winter is coming?  Winter is already here, but many have elected to not…

Several weeks ago, I wrote a commentary called Funny Times in which I bemoaned the complete lack of coherent data, making the process of predicting the course of interest rates, cap rates and transactional velocity over the next couple of quarters awfully hard.  This uncertainty, itself, contributes to a knock-on doom cycle sort of way…