Commentary on the Commercial Real Estate Debt Markets, Economics, Politics and More.
I perhaps have a well-earned reputation for an excess of fascination for risks, downside, black swans and other things that prevent the good times from rolling. Lover of Schadenfreude. I hope not, but I do often feel compelled to point out risks that seem to be overlooked.
I could be wrong (shocked…I’m shocked!). What happens…
I’m going to tell you a story. This is the type of thing told around campfires designed to scare naïfs, who know too little, and PhDs who (think) they know too much. I don’t necessarily believe in the story, but it could be true.
Once upon a time, in a time we now call the…
Trading Is Not a Dirty Word and Other Thoughts on a More Manageable CRE CLO
As we begin to reflate the CRE CLO business this year with shrinking spreads and hopefully shrinking SOFR, we need to think of this as CRE CLO 3.0. This business, this technology, which is truly a brilliant way to deliver…
Live in Hope…Die in Despair! Will Interest Rates Come Down (Far Enough) This Year?
I sure hope they will. While I’m a member in good standing of the higher-for-longer club, I would love to be convinced that rates are coming down…a lot. I want to believe all those eminent and eminent-adjacent talking heads making…
Hello, folks. I’m back. From now on, you can follow my musings on that which annoys, amuses and confounds me here in CrunchedEverything. I look forward to continuing to engage with my readership. Please don’t be shy about telling me that I am ill-informed analytically weak, or just plain silly.
In any event, I’m starting…
This is just a short note, with little actual utility, but it’s about something that’s really bothering me.
Why are we so calm? What has anesthetized us?
I’ve had numerous conversations with market-makers in and around our business and many, not all, but many, seem very relaxed about the here and now. I hear: Spreads…
Winter is surely coming. One might hope it will arrive without the sorcery, murder, mayhem and intrigue of that memorable HBO show, but surely it will be freighted by its own quantum of trauma and anxiety. Actually, what am I saying? Winter is coming? Winter is already here, but many have elected to not…
Several weeks ago, I wrote a commentary called Funny Times in which I bemoaned the complete lack of coherent data, making the process of predicting the course of interest rates, cap rates and transactional velocity over the next couple of quarters awfully hard. This uncertainty, itself, contributes to a knock-on doom cycle sort of way…
I’ve written extensively about the CRE CLO technology for a long time and why it is the best leverage technology across securitization markets. With the sponsor typically holding up to 20% of the bottom of the capital stack, it represents the best alignment of interests between sponsor and investor. For the sponsor, it provides unique…
What funny times in which we live; an observation perhaps highly dependent upon your notion of fun. Maybe curious is the better description. Daunting? Frightening? Opaque and unknowable? All probably good descriptions. True of politics. True of business.
Sticking to business, it’s hard to get conviction around anything right now. Nonetheless, we must. Everyone needs…
