Out of the dimensionless emptiness of the information vacuum surrounding Dodd-Frank risk retention that enveloped us early this year, the word is now spreading, through what you might charitably describe as informal communications (leaks), that the joint regulatory committee responsible for the risk retention rules is about to re-propose something, perhaps as early as September.Continue Reading TO THE BARRICADES! (AGAIN)

I told the Blog team that I had sworn off writing about Europe for a while; but really. The FT opinionized last week that the EU ministerial decision to agree on a standard “bail-in” to fix broken European banks was a good thing. The editorial ended with a ringing endorsement “something is, however, better than nothing.” Really? It reminds me of Wile E. Coyote bravely trying to use a handkerchief as a parachute as he falls off the butte, again. Beep, Beep.Continue Reading The Consequences of a Failed Banking Union

At last count, we now have four separate risk retention regimes (maybe five) that we need (or will soon need) to deal with as we attempt to restructure any securitization.   They are, of course, all different. And let’s be crystal clear. This isn’t an issue for the distant future. Risk retention is here now and soon, much sooner than most think, it will become a front and center issue for all of us. We’ve written about skin in the game many times in the past (e.g., here, here and here), and I’m not going to re-litigate both the intellectual unsoundness of the notion and the negative impact on capital formation, but as we await developments, I thought it would be useful to compare and contrast the four variations on the theme and sound the heads up.  It’s time for us to focus. Continue Reading Why Does Everyone Want to Make Me Keep Thinking About Risk Retention

There’s a lot of talk these days about the growth of a shadow banking market. Shadow is right! The growth of the commercial lending market outside of the universe of insured depository institutions and life insurance companies is real and its growth is accelerating, yet it is not easy to discern its size, shape and taxonomy. The shadow banking market, which simply means the community of lenders outside of the bank and lifeco cadres, is a logical response to a worldwide tsunami of regulatory activity designed to constrain innumerable facets of financial institutions’ operations which often seems more about retribution than the safety, soundness or integrity of the financial markets life.Continue Reading The Shadow Banking Market: The Shadow Knows

I was entertaining myself early this morning by looking over a joint agency report just released entitled “An Analysis of the Impact of the Commercial Real Estate Concentration Guidance”. This report summarizes the performance of bank CRE portfolios following the issuance of interagency guidance in 2006 entitled “Concentrations in Commercial Real Estate Lending, Sound Risk Management Practices”. Everyone will be shocked, shocked to know that through the course of the worst recession in post-war history, banks lost money because of commercial real estate exposure and many smaller and regional banks went casters up. Well, there’s startling news. We taxpayers pay for this sort of thing. Where is the sequester when we really need it?Continue Reading Undue Commercial Real Estate Risks Are Bad: The Mathematical Proof of the Blindingly Obvious

Terrorism insurance has been boring for the past several years. It risks becoming not boring. In the lee of the terrorism attack of 9/11, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, or TRIA, was rapidly passed by the Congress and signed by the President. TRIA provided a federal backstop for private terrorism insurance responding to the unwillingness of the private insurance market to provide meaningful terrorism insurance in light of the unpredictability of the risk and, therefore, perceived inability to price the insurance. TRIA was initially passed in November 2002 and reauthorized in 2005 and 2007. It expires on December 31, 2014. An extension is far from certain.Continue Reading Terrorism Insurance Redux

Among the more technical topics we cover in this Blog, we keep an eye on Europe as we fundamentally continue to worry that Europe’s disease could infect our markets. As I write this, Cyprus is trying to sort out the terms of the proposed EU bailout for the banking sector which is eight times the size of the GDP of the whole darn island. The US commodities and stock markets have fluttered in response and may continue to flutter for several days, but now a deal has been announced and the betting is Cyprus will drop out of the headlines and become yesterday’s news. We’ll be back to business with nary a backward glance at Europe; until next time.Continue Reading Cyprus: Not the Archduke Ferdinand Moment, This Time

Two and a half years after Dodd-Frank and almost two years after the first hurriedly issued proposed rules, the six agencies (Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Housing Finance Agency, Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) charged with creating risk retention architecture for commercial mortgage securitization have yet to issue a final rule, interim final rule or even a new proposed rule. Since Dodd-Frank provides a two year transition period after publication of a final Rule (or perhaps interim final rules), we might think, no Rule, no risk retention; all is good, no worries. Bad way to think about this. Something is coming out soon. It will be important. It may start affecting our business now. I don’t think we can or should be complacent. More on this later.

What we’re hearing from the panjandrums of the regulatory community is that the horrific concept known as premium capture cash reserve account (PCCRA) is finally cold and dead (although until I see sunlight shining in its grave and a stake in its heart, I won’t be sure), and that the regulation writing committee is settling on an alternative, focusing on risk retention to be satisfied through a B-piece buyer holding a horizontal 5% first-loss strip (the B piece fix was, of course, added to the statute by amendment by Senator Crapo, bless his heart). On this topic the statute said:Continue Reading It’s Time to Revisit Risk Retention

I have written periodically in this Blog about my persistent concerns about the European economy and its capacity to negatively impact ours. I get wound up, then I get swayed by the majority views of the chattering class who gently explain I’m indulging in alarmist adolescent flights of fancy and I should leave the big issues to the smart people, e.g., the overwhelmingly Europhile policy glitterati.Continue Reading Black Swans in Camo: Continued Concern about the European Community