You know, there’s never a dull moment when one reports on the regulatory states’ endless and so often fruitless and wrong-headed tinkering with the global economy. So now… let’s talk bail-in. The bail-in regime, which was adopted by all European Union countries (other than Poland) and implemented on January 1, 2016 (European Economic Area (EEA) members Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein are required to adopt the regime by December 31, 2016), permits European financial regulators to “bail-in” a failing institution by cancelling, writing-down, or converting into equity certain of the institution’s unsecured liabilities. Affected institutions must include a contractual recognition clause in its non-European-law governed contracts, so that all counterparties acknowledge that the institution’s liabilities are potentially subject to bail-in and agree to be bound by them.
Continue Reading Bail-In, or Just Bailing?
Cuba and the Booming Commercial Real Estate Industry to Come
On March 20, 2016, President Obama became the first United States president in almost 90 years to visit the island of Cuba, located a mere 90 miles from the coast of Florida—signaling not only a renewed diplomatic relationship between the United States and the communist country, but also, the dawning of a new commercial age which will undoubtedly transform Cuba and its real estate industry.
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Brushing up on Brexit – Do I Care?
The referendum on whether the UK leaves the European Community is increasingly a Today issue. With a vote on June 23 the reality of a UK exit is getting harder to ignore.
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Three Things You Should Know about Negative Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve announced last Wednesday that it is leaving the federal funds rate where it is, for now. While the United States is pondering interest rate hikes, other parts of the world are plunging further into negative territory. Last Thursday, in an attempt to bolster Europe’s weakening growth and spur inflation, the European Central Bank (the “ECB”) lowered its deposit rate by another 0.1%, pushing its deposit rate down to -0.4%.
With other central banks lowering rates into the negative, will the U.S. follow? Why is this happening? What could go wrong? How will this affect our banks? Click through for three things you should know about negative interest rates.Continue Reading Three Things You Should Know about Negative Interest Rates
Flash: Congress Fixes the CMBS Risk Retention Problem (Just Kidding)
Last week, the House Committee on Financial Services reported out the Preserving Access to CRE Capital Act of 2016 (the “bill”) in a remarkably bipartisan sort of way (paving the way for: “Well, yes, I did vote for it, but then I voted against it.”). The bill, which was drafted and backed by CREFC, would exempt certain single asset/single borrower securitizations from the risk retention requirements, would allow the B-piece buyer to acquire the risk retention piece in a senior/subordinate capital structure and loosen the criteria for a qualified commercial real estate loan to make it more useful for CMBS players endeavoring to meet the risk retention requirements of Dodd-Frank. See Dechert’s OnPoint for a more detailed description of the bill.
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Risk Retention and the Regulatory State: What It Means to “The Folks” in 2016 and Beyond
We may be approaching a tipping point where the burden of the new federal regulatory state, purportedly designed to make our economy stronger by making the banking system safer, will begin to demonstrably become a cure that’s worse than the disease. To my eye, much of the new regulatory apparatus feels like political theatre designed to impress the financial illiterate. Random chest thumping for populist cred on the cynical assumption that the system is big enough and robust enough to tolerate all this tampering. Of course, I could be wrong and our policy elites could really be doing all this fiddling from an honest embrace of a simplistic, jejune analysis of extremely complex systems which they largely do not understand. I’m not sure which explanation scares me more.
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CREFC and MBA/CREF: A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Alternate Universes
That whole alternate universe thing, the conceit of so many sci-fi novels, is clearly not merely the product of fevered minds. It’s real. Or, at least it seemed awfully real after having been at the CREFC meeting in Miami and the MBA/CREF meeting in Orlando during the past month.
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If Interesting and Prosperous is a Choice, I’ll Take Door Number Two: Perspectives on 2016
As we do each year at Crunched Credit, we take the end of a calendar year as an opportunity to stop and reflect on where we are, and what the next year might hold. Recognizing the certainty that a successful prediction is more a random event – a blind cat finding a dead mouse, than a product of wisdom and analytic prowess, it remains an important exercise. It bears repeating that refusing to take a view is actually to make a choice, and a pretty silly one at that. So as we at Dechert churn through our budgeting and planning process for 2016, we will make some assumptions about the economic environment and adjust our planning accordingly. Let’s agree, we are going to be wrong about a lot of stuff – maybe everything – but that fact doesn’t excuse the critical need for having a macro view.
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The Death of EB-5 Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
Earlier this year we discussed the uncertain future of the EB-5 Visa Program, one of the most successful inbound investment programs of recent years, as evidenced by the $5.2 billion dollars the program has generated in the past ten years alone. Although the EB-5 Visa Program was set to expire on September 30, 2015, Congress approved a temporary extension that allowed the program to continue through December 11, 2015. But notwithstanding the growing popularity and success of the program and the enthusiasm about it from US domestic developers and property owners, it has always engendered some concerns and criticism. And so, here in early December, its future hangs in the balance. Supporters say the program should be renewed because it generates employment opportunities and funds domestic businesses that rely on these types of investments, but critics claim the program is poorly regulated and tainted by fraud and a certain odor of unseemliness. With the potential expiration of the program set to occur later this week, it is uncertain whether the program will lapse, become permanent, be temporarily extended “as is”, or extended with significant reformations.
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CrunchedCredit.com’s 6th Annual Golden Turkey Awards
As is our tradition here at Crunched Credit, each year, about this time, we award our Golden Turkey Awards. Once again, I must say that we are blessed, blessed with so many worthy candidates. Our government, our courts, the regulatory estate both here and in Europe and around the world and the political class in general have once again vied with verve and imagination and breathtaking persistence to win a spot on our acclaimed list. For those of you who we must disappoint, please accept our heartfelt apologies. Yes, you screwed up and did stupid things breathtakingly well, just not as well as this year’s winners.
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