Regulatory

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As we all marinate in the difficulties of Mr. Zuckerberg, who, at the end of the day, can certainly salve any wounds with a net worth measured in the tens of billions of dollars, I was struck by the continued drumbeat for “REGULATION.”  Now, perhaps I am ill equipped to discuss Facebook, not being a participant and therefore never having clicked through a lengthy agreement on privacy (or the lack thereof), but I have some thoughts.  I’ll largely leave the ethics of the privacy contretemps to others, but I was struck by the parallels between the current kerfuffle over Facebook and privacy and the Dodd-Frank mess, lo these ten years past.

Let’s start with this dictum:  Beware the politician bearing new and comprehensive regulatory gifts for the American people.
Continue Reading I Hear This Cries Out for Regulation!

Geeking out, I just finished reading the second report from the Alternate Reference Rates Committee that was just published jointly by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) in cooperation with the Alternate Reference Rates Committee (ARRC).  Does that scream bureaucracy in full, or what?  The report runs 40 pages, awkwardly pats itself on the back (with a net back-patting surplus allocated amongst the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the U.S. Commodities Future Trading Commission and the Office of Financial Research) for confirming that we need a LIBOR replacement and the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is way better than the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) or the Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR).  Ergo SOFR is the ARRC’s preferred alternate rate upon the expiry of the spavined LIBOR.
Continue Reading More Fun with LIBOR

Last week IMN hosted an inaugural New Hotel and Development Conference in New York City.  The gathering of developers, hotel operators, brands and other hospitality service providers was very upbeat.  Many panelists indicated that they were more optimistic now than they had been six months ago.  They credited the state of the macro economy and stimulus provided by the recent tax reforms.
Continue Reading IMN 2018 New Hotel Development and Construction Conference

You know, sometimes life’s problems smack you against the side of the head like a 2×4, and sometimes it’s just a multiplicity of middling offenses that become so annoying that you might just want to roll over and die. Think anything involving a conversation with the DMV or the phone company. Today, we’re talking the death of a thousand paper cuts brought to us by those well-meaning folks who are beavering away to replace LIBOR.
Continue Reading The End of Days (Or At Least LIBOR)

The Trump administration and Congress have lots on the agenda: tax reform, financial regulation reform, job creation (think infrastructure spending, maybe?) and more. While it seems unlikely that much of anything “real” is going to happen anytime soon or even this year (other than more drama, more tweets and more Trump-isms), there’s some hope for a fix for the many failings of the High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule.
Continue Reading HVCRE: Busting Myths

Since 2015, we here at Crunched Credit have tracked, followed and discussed the developments (or lack thereof) concerning the Immigration Investor Program, more commonly known as the “EB-5 Visa Program.” Throughout the past year, we’ve witnessed the approval of several extensions of the EB-5 Visa Program and in each instance, no substantive changes were included—these extensions were solely put in place in order to prevent the expiration of one of the most successful investment programs.
Continue Reading New Year! New Administration! Same EB-5 Dilemma!

What if Dodd-Frank and Basel III were to largely go away? Eliminating Dodd-Frank has been a hobbyhorse of Representative Hensarling, the chair of the House Services Committee, for several years and has figured prominently in President Trump’s campaign talking points. But the conventional wisdom has been that any sort of transformational uprooting of the Dodd-Frank and Basel III thicket was unlikely.

That’s what I thought, too. In fact, I have bloviated to that point in the press and on podiums many times. From the moment when everyone’s thinking was refocused that November 9th morning, I had thought that while major disruptions of many things were in the cards, Dodd-Frank and the Basel III architecture really weren’t on the menu. Now I’m starting to wonder. Sure, I still think major retrenchment is not going to happen, but my conviction that it’s impossible is what now gives me pause. Let’s face it, while rarely in doubt, I’m wrong a lot.

So just in case I am wrong, yet again, and some version of repeal or replace happens for Dodd-Frank and Basel III is rejected or slow-walked to death, what might that mean? It’s time to start planning for alternative facts.
Continue Reading Alternative Facts? A World Without Dodd-Frank and Basel III

This is all about the difficulty of taking the punch bowl away from a roaring good party. Over the past several weeks a number of major banks folded under enormous pressure from the US DOJ to settle fraud claims resulting from the sale of bonds prior to the financial crisis of 2008. The allegations here were that, as they have been in many many cases over the past several years, the banks knowingly sold bonds backed by crappy residential mortgage loans. Apparently, no one else had a clue that this stuff was crap! Who knew? These last suite of deals were relative bargains for the banks because, reportedly, the DOJ was highly motivated to get these deals done before Mr. Trump took the helm at the White House.

For some reason this calmed investors’ concerns.

I don’t get it.
Continue Reading Hey Guys, Let’s Sue a Financial Institution! Our Government at Play

Standing on the beach and gazing at the exotic and unmapped shores of Trumpania (the land remade by the orange swan on November 9th), I am struck by the discontinuity of having watched our government and chattering class looking at our banking sector exclusively through the lens of risk and distrust these past 8 years only now discovering that it might make sense to look at the banking sector through the lens of growth. Headline News! The banking sector is a critical component of a growing healthy economy! Who would have thought! The signs are already there that the focus of the government will be significantly less on bolstering prudential regulation and materially more on empowering the banks to provide liquidity needed for the economy to reach that magic 4% place that Mr. Trump has told us that we will achieve.
Continue Reading All You Villainous Bankers: Time to Take Off Those Black Hats