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Happy Inauguration Day (I hope).

Every turning of the year makes for a convenient point to look backwards, and of course, forward, but this year seems to actually denote some sort of inflection point and, as a card-carrying member of the blogosphere, I feel compelled to burden you with my views as to what the next year will hold for us all.  I am unburdened by anxiety or discomfiture in doing so, as the prediction business is one of asymmetrical risk and reward.  An anodyne exercise, I trust.  No one actually expects talking heads to be right, and no one remembers when you’re wrong; but in the blind cat finding a dead mouse type of way, if you are right, you get to annoyingly trumpet your breathtakingly erudite and accurate prediction over and over again for the rest of the year.

After predicting a terrific 2020 last January, how wrong could I be this time?
Continue Reading Elections Matter: My Dead Nuts Certain Guarantees for 2021

We’re happy to share some exciting news as Crunched Credit’s very own Rick Jones has been named as a newly elected member of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance Board of Governors (COMBOG). COMBOG drives Mortgage Bankers Association’s commercial and multifamily policies and recommends industry standards.  After a tumultuous year and with some…

So, once again, time for Dechert’s acclaimed (at least by us) Annual Golden Turkey Awards.  It is rather a difficult time for comedy; we are in the throes of a completely unfunny pandemic.  Sitting down to finalize this year’s list gave me some sympathy for our late-night talk show hosts who are very publicly pining over the end of the Trump administration and trying to find humor in the anticipated Biden administration, where the watchword is “dull is cool.”  But perhaps looking for inanity and making gentle fun of it might even be more important in tough times than good.  So, with that in mind, we went digging for gems in 2020.  Nothing seems quite so risible as in past years, but here’s the best of a bad lot:Continue Reading 2020 Golden Turkey Awards

Folks, last week I made the point that it’s extremely important to confront negative narratives about our industry before they take hold, creep into the interstices between things that are true and then somehow ossified into received wisdom.  So, taking on board my own advice, which shockingly I find compelling, I want to sound the alarm about a recent Wall Street Journal story concerning the misstatement of net operating income in our industry (I only wish I could qualify as an influencer here.  I read about two teens with millions of followers this weekend; they talk about stuff like..their hair.  Is there anyone out there that wants to know about my hair?).
Continue Reading CMBS On The Perp Walk: We Are Being Set Up!

The closing deadline is quickly approaching!  Which of the following two processes would you choose?  Would you:

(a) create a pdf of signature pages and request that parties provide a digital signature and return via email, or

(b) print out multiple sets of paper copies of each signature page for each transaction document in triplicate, then… ship each signature page packet to each signatory for the transaction (sending in tandem, an email with the overnight delivery tracking numbers) with a pre-addressed and prepaid return envelope and instructions to sign and return on a very tight timeline with no room for error, then…wait by the mailroom for those signature pages to come back.Continue Reading Original[s] Sin

I’ve been offline for a bit.  An amalgam of writer’s block caused by the enormity of the Coronavirus mess – what can be said that’s useful – and the consequence of being wildly busy as everyone across financial markets tries to pivot to the new reality.  Unburdened by any knowledge of science, medicine or epidemiology, I have been marinating in the output of such intellectually distinguished journals as The Sun, The Daily Beast, The Onion, The Mirror, The New York Post and Drudge on the daily ups and downs of our plague, its cost in blood and treasure and the disruption it has caused across all aspects of our life.  Consequently, I have opinions but I’ve concluded they’re pretty damn worthless.  We’re in uncharted waters, akin to those bits on a medieval map where the cartographers had no clue and wrote: “Here be Dragons.”
Continue Reading Playing with Broken Toys in Coronavirus Land

The spread of COVID-19 has created a new reality for the hospitality industry. As of March 25, the CDC reported 54,453 confirmed cases in the U.S., and the number is expected to grow exponentially. In the hopes of slashing infection rates, governments have implemented international travel bans, shelter-in-place orders and other restrictive measures. The second-most popular tourist destination in the world, Spain, has ordered all its hotels and other tourist accommodations to be closed.
Continue Reading Beds without Heads: Hotels in the Era of the Coronavirus

The commercial real estate finance industry is facing substantial challenges due to climate change, particularly with respect to extreme flooding. As flood events continue to occur more frequently and with greater severity across the US, the role of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)—and its administration of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and…

The Federal Reserve, OCC and FDIC have (finally) issued the Final HVCRE Rule (for background, our analysis of the 2018 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking and 2019 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking are here and here), regarding High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) regulations that affect acquisition, development or construction (ADC) loans made by banking organizations that are subject to the capital rule, including bank holding companies, savings and loan holding companies and U.S. intermediate holding companies of foreign banking organizations. The Final HVCRE rule becomes effective April 1, 2020. Here are the Top 10 takeaways from the Final HVCRE Rule:
Continue Reading Top 10 Things to Know About the Final HVCRE Rule

One of the good things about the 24/7 news cycle, perhaps one of its few positive externalities, is that it’s a boon for the pontification business. It enables all sorts of otherwise serious people to make fools of themselves day in and day out predicting generally gloomy stuff, as sunshine doesn’t sell.  As a card-carrying member of the chattering class, this empowers me to publish periodic outlooks about the future with little risk of any fundamental embarrassment.  It’s sort of a no risk undertaking, isn’t it?  If you happen to get something right (think blind cat finding dead mouse), you can claim to be a star.  If you get it wrong, well, everyone else got it wrong, too – and often on national television.

The other thing we’ve got going for us in the bloviating business is that we remain in fraught and friable times.  We are running short of good synonyms for shock and outrage and struggling to describe what might actually be viewed as extraordinary.  What really does extraordinary mean these days?  These make good times for the prediction biz.  It’s not much fun making predictions when not much changes.  Imagine that poor sod, talking to the Pharaoh during the Old Kingdom after reading many entrails,  I foresee…nothing really changing for 2000 years; more news at 11.

Unburdened by much of the way in data and little in the way of anxiety about getting it wrong, I’m ready to tell you all about 2020:Continue Reading 2020: An Outlook