Hello, All. The Golden Turkeys are back again – in my first post-Dechert effort. That means I have fewer folks to help me come up with brilliant ideas and even fewer folks to edit my really bad ideas. So, bear with me while I personally compile my list of things which annoy, amuse or confound me at CrunchedCredit.
It’s been quite a year for harvesting silliness, absurdity and the annoyingly stupid. With the right attitude and perhaps some pharmacological intervention, it’s all pretty funny.
So, here we go.
The Self-Inflicted Wound Award goes to the Democratic party on their absurdist clown car path to one of the greatest electoral smackdowns in recent history. It’s got to be embarrassing for all Bond-like evil masterminds trying to take down America that the Democratics managed to take down the Democratic Party without (apparently) the benefit of a brilliantly nefarious plot nor evil chortling from the masterminds of SPECTRE. What’s the point of working hard at being evil when shear amateurs can do so much damage (and I missed Ms. Galore in the credits.). They started by rebranding the transitional Mr. Biden as the transformational Mr. Biden (without regrettably the use of the stunt double). Then they pretended he’s a model of a modern major statesman until they unceremoniously booted him to the curb after the first debate, discovering…who knew…that the elevator no longer went to the top floor. Next step in this march to ruination was to install, without so much as an “if you please” to the Democratic electorate, Ms. Harris who, until that moment, had not exactly been seen as transformational, or in fact been seen as much of anything of importance by party cadres. Then, in a moment of breathless delight, the hagiography of Ms. Harris began. Shocking, shocking it was this (other) stable genius had walked amongst us while we were heedless of her brilliance, judgment and sterling qualities of leadership. Ignoring the great Carville’s advice that it’s the economy stupid, Ms. Harris and her joy brigade spent 100 days and over $1 billion convincing the electorate that Mr. Trump was exactly what the electorate already knew Mr. Trump was. It didn’t work and now they are going to have to live with it.
The Common Sense is Over-Valued Award goes to, once again, to the SEC which is beavering away trying to get out regulations before Inaugural Day. This is demonstrably silly, as nothing is going to survive January 20 including, it appears now, Mr. Gessler. I hear tell they are still pining for the suspended Rule 15c2-11, one of my personal favorites in the silly walk contest of dumb regulatory missives. If you remember, it proposed to treat the 144A debt markets as if banks were selling penny stock to the folks; protecting folks who can’t buy 144A securities, from buying 144A securities they can’t buy could have come back, but now I guess it won’t. In some ways, I’m delighted that the SEC is burning its time and energy on stuff that actually doesn’t matter. (Shockingly, after I wrote this, the SEC just extended the Rule’ s current suspension indefinitely… an eruption of common sense or surrender to the reality of Trumpism?)
The John McEnroe “You Can’t Be Serious” Award goes to tampons in boys rooms and Matt Goetz at Justice. I don’t think I need to say more. Now, as I write this, Mr. Goetz is gone. Well, time for Mr. Kennedy, Ms. Gabbard and Mr. Hegseth to step up and take poll position in the Dubious Derby. The Goetz thing is sad, really. With Epstein gone and P Diddy in jail, I had been holding out hope for lots of really salacious New York Post stories of fine orgies over at Justice.
The Who Are You Going to Believe, Me or Your Lying Eyes Award goes to everyone in our political and business elites who somehow thought (and seemingly still think) that interest rates are coming down far and fast to make life safe again for risky leverage. While it’s now entirely counterfactual amusement to consider whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris would have bent us more rapidly toward monetary oblivion, the Trump Administration looks up to the task. Sure, the economy can and will function with a yield curve anchored at higher levels than we have seen for a decade, but anyone who borrowed money in the past several years is not going to enjoy the trip. Extend and pretend works until you discover that your bridge is actually a pier and the other side of Lake Woebegone is far, far away. On the other hand, the good times are about to start rolling for the distressed debt gang. Run up the Jolly Roger and have at it! We’ll see proof, once again, that one man’s rescue capital is the other man’s pirate boarding party.
The Captain Renault Award goes to the progressive wing at the Democratic party who was shocked, shocked to find that large swathes of the electorate, reliably D-leaning in years gone by, were not keen on unlimited immigration, open boarders, hulking transgender men in women’s sports, much of the entire woke catechism, the Non-Criminal Hate Incident fiasco (for my Brit friends) and the whole deplorables narrative. Well, we all make mistakes.
The Emperor’s New Clothes Award may go (and the jury is still out a bit here) to the incredible surging Bitcoin. You pay your money (no pun intended here) and take your chances. I get the arguments. It’s more like gold and less like a fiat currency, but at least you can make stuff out of gold. What happens when Bitcoin becomes tulips? Can’t happen? Well, it started in 2010 at 10 cents, got to $1200 then lost half its value in 2015; got as high as $70,000 in 2021 and then dropped to $18,000 and is now threatening to be $100,000 before the end of the year. That makes for a bumpy ride and a shitty currency. A valuable asset class? Maybe. Fiat currencies seem to work because those who issue it have, oh, I don’t know, armies. Also, before we embrace bitcoin, remember we got rid of gold because it was often deflationary just when we needed that little whiff of inflation. If Mr. Churchill was still around, he would have a view on it. What did the Oracle of Omaha say? Rat poison squared. He’s been wrong a lot, right? (If it keeps going up and up, I may have to give myself an award next year for being a luddite moron…we’ll see.)
The Just Plain Stupid and Dazed Award goes to our European allies who continue to think it’s a terrific idea to rely on the United States to defend Europe from their Russian, Chinese and Mideastern buddies. The attraction is obvious. Goodies for votes. It’s super annoying if you actually have to pay for your own defense. The folk have grown used to the goodies. Does anyone across the pond know how to spell Trump?
The Common Sense Award goes to all those who fought the defenestration of Chevron to the very end, and frankly beyond it. What a great idea. Why not show great deference to the bureaucratic apparatchiki who can reliably continue to support any regulation which results in more work for the bureaucrats. Hey, if further government intrusion into the personal lives of citizens and the operation of any business is annoying, it’s a small price to pay to keep three million (yes, count them) federal employees beavering away. What could go wrong? Calling Mr. Musk…Calling Mr. Musk (and that other guy).
The Delusion Award goes to those of our Hollywood elites that seem to have conflated acting chops with actually knowing anything about…pretty much anything else. They clearly have gotten into their pretty little heads (and yes, most of them are pretty) that the folk should listen to their views on how the economy should be run, what government ought to do and how to handle economics and geopolitical risks because, hey, they’re followed and fawned over a lot. Who knew that a bunch of ill-educated (but very rich), often self-absorbed poseurs whose highest and best use is emoting and preening, aren’t the obvious choice for getting advice on budgets, deficits, geopolitical risks, etc. And let me add a Miss Congeniality Award here for the political operatives who thought parading these wealthy bubble denizen out to talk to the electorate was brilliant politics.
We Have Too Much Prosperity Award goes to Maurizio Cattelan who duct-taped a banana to a wall for which Sotheby’s just sold for $6.2 million (wall is extra). Apparently, that’s genius and in a world that seems to have lost perspective on what art actually is. The artist (artist??) very helpfully indicated that you can change the banana once in a while, which sounds like a really good idea, from just a hygiene point of view. Tom Wolf figured this out in the middle of the last century and famously observed that modern art was the biggest fraud inflicted upon the public in the 20th century. Need more proof? Thank God Mr. Wolf was gone before Hunter sold a painting for $1.5 million! I wonder how many paintings the younger Mr. Biden has sold since November 6. Funny, that is.
The Magical Thinking Award goes to everyone that thought inflation was transitory, the election will be close, borders are secure, we can end a war in one day, an emotional support allegator is an okay thing (no, really, read about it in The Post), all of Mr. Trump’s…unconventional…cabinet appointees will be confirmed, the Democrats will reject the gravitational pull of their very activist left wing and return to the center, Mr. Trump will be transformed into a dignified, thoughtful and measured statesman and the Jets and Giants will be in the Super Bowl.
Well, I could go on, but I needed something to complain about next week, so I’ll stop here. And let me conclude buy wishing everyone a happy, less interesting (in a Chinese proverb sort of way) and prosperous New Year. Stay tuned for more CrunchedCredit.