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God help me, I’m finally writing about climate change.  This commentary assiduously avoids the obviously political (we take the view that complaining about and belittling our elected representatives and the permanent bureaucracy for doing boneheaded things is entirely apolitical).  And while even the phrase “climate change” carries with it a certain frisson of a capital “P” political debate, this is not that.  So, please, don’t ball this missive up, toss it away and cancel your subscription to Crunched Credit if you’re (A) not a fully-enrolled initiate in the Green Revolution, or indeed, even, if you are someone who thinks that the threat of climate change is somewhat… overblown (I’m not even going to think about using the term “climate denier”) or (B) someone who thinks climate change is real but simply throws your arms up in frustration over the possibility of finding a possibly affordable fix.

In either of those cases, I expect your default response to climate change talk is simply to move on to something more actionable in your professional life and I’m going to suggest here why you shouldn’t do that.  We need to start paying more attention than I have paid to date.Continue Reading Commercial Real Estate and Climate Change

We have been writing off and on about the restoration to good graces of the commercial real estate CLO since the early days of this current recovery, and it’s important to keep the conversation going.  Hey, if Pete Rose can get into the Hall of Fame (and as MLB is embracing gambling, that cannot but happen, right?), the full restoration of the reputation of the CRE CLO cannot be far behind.

First, let’s just stop and get some definitional clarity here for those of you who actually have a life.  Fundamentally, the CRE CLO is a device that provides match-term leverage for a portfolio lender, though the technology can be used for other purposes.  Loans are pooled, investment-grade securities are sold to investors, and the loans are repaid from debt service payments.  Customarily, the sponsor retains all of the equity and junior debt, creating structural leverage to enhance returns on the dollars invested in the structure.

It’s really a warehouse funded by the capital markets. As such, it provides for an excellent alignment of interests between investors and the sponsor, who holds the bottom of the capital stack.  The sponsor is in it for the long haul, managing financial assets for its benefit and the benefit of the investors alike.
Continue Reading The CRE CLO Is Back…and That’s Good

With full and complete credit to the Bard (Macbeth), and to Mr. Ray Bradbury who repurposed this line as the title for his 1962 dark fantasy (of which I was and still am a huge fan), there is just not a better title for this note. Trust me. A few weeks ago, I inked a note about whether the current expansion was soon coming to an end and whether it made sense to begin to “get the distressed debt band back together again.” Tongue slightly in cheek then because things seemed awfully good, I made the argument that we are not really all that far away from an abrupt right turn off the highway of good times onto the dirt road of distress. It apparently resonated (or at least there’s lots of people who think like me). Dechert is hosting a distressed debt conference on October 18, 2018 in New York which will touch on a wider range of issues but will include a distressed debt panel and we now have almost 400 RSVPs. We’ll report on that next week. That’s either 400 people with nothing better to do, or 400 folks who think it might just as well be time to start thinking about the end of days.
Continue Reading The Next Recession: Something…Perhaps Not Really Wicked… But Certainly Annoying…This Way Comes

In 2013, the Obama administration issued the Cole Memorandum, which called a truce between federal prosecutors and marijuana businesses operating legitimately under state law.  After regime change in Washington, however, it may come as no surprise that Jeff Sessions—the Attorney General who once opined that “good people don’t smoke marijuana”—rescinded the Obama-era guidance.  The only real surprise is that it took him a whole year to do it.

Since at least 2013, marijuana-related businesses have generally been operating on predictable, albeit legally shaky, ground.  Dispensaries have expanded dramatically.  Though details vary wildly, nine states currently allow recreational use and medicinal use is currently permitted under the laws of all but four states.

As a result, commercial real estate lenders have to grapple with the increasingly common problem of the dispensary tenant, and a number of lenders are dipping their toes into lending in expectation of securitizing loans secured in part by dispensaries.  But given the January 2018 announcement that the Cole memo is no longer in effect, the question everyone’s asking is: are things really that different?  The answer, we think, is no—but with an asterisk.
Continue Reading Securitizing Marijuana Dispensary Properties in the Sessions Era

Last week IMN hosted an inaugural New Hotel and Development Conference in New York City.  The gathering of developers, hotel operators, brands and other hospitality service providers was very upbeat.  Many panelists indicated that they were more optimistic now than they had been six months ago.  They credited the state of the macro economy and stimulus provided by the recent tax reforms.
Continue Reading IMN 2018 New Hotel Development and Construction Conference

Back in July of 2015, we blogged about “Current Marketplace Trends in Real Estate Crowdfunding”.  How young and breathless we were, in hindsight, now that we’re tapped into the Next Big ICO thing.  Yes, the “fintech” world has apparently leapt forward into the dawning age of the ICO without so much as a backward glance, still unfettered by the restraining hand of regulation (such as the JOBS Act “exemption”, which seems to have throttled old-world crowdfunding in the cradle).

But wait a sec—just what is an ICO? 
Continue Reading Does the ICO Open a New Chapter for RE Crowdfunding?

Earlier this month, our very own Kenneth D. Hackman, a regular contributor to Crunched Credit, moderated a panel entitled Single-Family Rental: The Landscape and Future of CRE’s Newest Asset Class, hosted by Dechert LLP, for CREFC’s After-Work Seminar Series.

The esteemed panel consisted of Kevin S. Dwyer, Senior Vice President, RMBS, Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC; Bradley J. Hauger, Senior Vice President, Loan Servicing Director, PNC Real Estate/Midland Loan Services; J. Christopher Hoeffel, Chief Financial Officer, CoreVest American Finance and R. Christopher Jones, Director, Deutsche Bank.

Readers of Crunched Credit know that we are bullish on SFR: single-family rental is the largest class of rental stock in America, eclipsing the multi-family market. The number of single-family rental units grew 23% from 2006-2015, with most of that growth following the Great Recession. Since then, the institutional single-family rental business has blossomed into a viable, long-term business. And as institutional ownership has grown, SFR finance has grown apace.

You know, for a long time, we, and I think many other observers, thought that SFR was a trade created by the collapse of the residential housing market in 2007-2008. We thought when the opportunity to buy single family homes at ridiculously low prices, fix them up and rent them went away, the trade would go away. We were wrong and SFR is growing into a mature industry that is likely to continue to grow for many years. Right now, depending on who you ask, 12 or 13% of US housing stock is now single family home rentals. Of that, only a small percentage is in institutional hands. Note that in several G20 countries, a very large portion of the housing stock is in institutional hands. It seems there’s plenty of headroom for this industry to grow here at home.
Continue Reading Single-Family Rental: The Landscape and Future of CRE’s Newest Asset Class

As we are just inking one of the very first pre-risk retention effective date risk retention deals (Potemkin Village anyone?), we are also seeing an increased flow of what are generically referred to as CRE CLOs. It’s time to consider how the Risk Retention Rule (the “Rule”) will apply to this growing market technology.
Continue Reading Risk Retention and the CRE CLO

orange theodolite prism lies on a background of geodetic maps of the areaFor those of you who read our commentary regularly, you’ll see that we span the commentariat world from musings of perhaps little practical utility but great import (at least to us) to the more mundane.  Today, mundane. Let’s talk title policies and survey standards.  There’s good news here and often good news doesn’t travel fast enough, so here we go.

Title policies “insure over” information that a survey would discern.  It’s precious little good to have a title policy yet find out there’s a missile silo just behind the setback line owned by the US Government.  So title companies require a survey and will generally insure over any nasty surprises the survey would have uncovered.
Continue Reading Seeing is Believing: ALTA’s New Survey Standards