After years of delays, changes and significant debate, the Volcker Rule is now, largely, in full effect. Sold to a sometimes intellectually incurious Congress and the electorate as a central piece of legislation to limit systemic risks to the financial system, the Volcker Rule, among other things, prohibits “banking entities” from engaging in proprietary trading activities and acquiring or retaining “ownership interests” in (or acting as sponsors of) certain “covered funds.”
Continue Reading Volcker Rule – Five Years On

euroFor want of a baker, a job was lost.  For want of a job, the economy was lost.  For want of an economy, the banking system collapsed.  For want of a banking system – well, ultimately Grexit.

Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, Grexit, (China), Grexit, Grexit. The Greeks will be fine, right?  There is no such thing as contagion, right?  Your lips to God’s ear, please. As I write this, the Greek Parliament has approved the bailout and it looks like an immediate Grexit is off the table, (although the Germans are none too pleased)!  Wonderful.
Continue Reading Grexit Deferred: The End of the Beginning for Greece?

capital

This is a good news story for once.  But, of course, since the father of this soupcon of good news is our government, it’s almost unintended.

From the ashes of the economic recession of 2008 came the rebirth of the Immigration Investor Program, more commonly known as “EB-5 Visa Program.”  This bit of social engineering has been around since the program was first introduced back in 1990 but got a second wind when everything else went to Hell.  The purpose behind the program was to benefit the United States economy by attracting investments from qualified foreign nationals.
Continue Reading The EB-5 Visa Program: the Rebirth of the Immigration Investor Program

Or perhaps Prometheus had it right in its original form. “Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad.”  Look at what we are doing to construction lending in the name of our seemingly endless safety and soundness crusade.

Under the new regulatory capital rules, we have a new asset class; HVCRE or High Volatility Commercial Real Estate.  HVCRE includes acquisition, developments and construction loans.  These loans are assigned a risk rating of 150% of the basic risk rating for commercial real estate.  Now, to be fair there are limitations and exceptions to the type of loans that attract this higher regulatory capital requirement, but those are somewhat at odds with the realities of the market.  Just by way of a few examples, to avoid HVCRE status the borrower must have 15% cash equity.  The rules about what is and what is not cash equity are artificially restrictive and not in all respects in accord with the market practice.  So-called soft costs count but appreciation in the value of the real estate is disregarded; only cash paid at acquisition counts.  As a property is held for longer and longer, this makes increasingly little sense.  Why is land value equity any less real than cash invested for so-called soft costs?  I have never met a developer without a fabulist view of what should be counted as soft costs.  Please, I’ll take real live equity in the dirt any time.  Also, for reasons which are entirely obscure, one cannot count the borrowers’ other free and clear assets, letters of  credit, cash or unencumbered readily marketable securities held on account of the borrower.  Also neither preferred equity nor subordinated debt counts.
Continue Reading Whom the Gods Would Destroy, They First Make Meet A Higher Regulatory Capital Burden

You know, as an economist, I am a pretty good piano player. I struggle every morning, marinating in the news cycle, to try to understand what’s happened to the US economy and what its impact will be or might be upon the business of commercial real estate finance. We apparently are inching up on the point where the Fed may or may not do something, but as we discussed in this column a while back, the Fed’s idiosyncratic love affair with transparency is creating a cacophony of voices both in and outside of government that make even that threshold question hard to answer. It would seem we ought to pay attention, but, as the fed-heads and the commentariat continuously randomly blather and bloviate it’s just all noise, so what’s the point? I have been and remain fundamentally confused and in all the chatter I don’t see much wisdom or insight.
Continue Reading Commercial Real Estate and the Broader US Economy: What Me, Worry?

Is the Federal Reserve overreaching by broadening the scope of its policies?

If extremism in the defense of liberty is (reportedly) no vice, unremitting, continuous undisciplined chatter for the sake of transparency is no virtue.  God knows transparency has become the sine qua non of public ethics these days.  To be accused of not being transparent is pretty much the same thing as being accused of being an anti-Semite (with notable exceptions for certain parts of the world).  When it was reported recently that Mrs. Clinton had used a private email address as opposed to an official State Department email, someone suggested that this evidenced a lack of transparency.  The democratic establishment shuddered, only matched by the glee over at Fox News.Continue Reading Mrs. Yellen, What in the World Are You Doing?

A securitization community coming off of record issuances in 2014 has entered the new year with a mixture of nerves and optimism.  An estimated 6,500 finance professionals and attorneys converged for the 2015 ABS Las Vegas conference.  The new risk retention rules, and their impact on CLOs in particular, were on everyone’s lips – to the point that one panel moderator opened his remarks by saying that he was narrowing the stated discussion topic to focus exclusively on CLO risk retention, at the urging of the panelists and audience.
Continue Reading ABS Las Vegas 2015

Here’s one from left field that I only began to focus on recently.  In mid-December, the gnomes of Basel published several “Consultative Documents” on bank capital and credit risk issues.  First of all, I’m somewhat suspicious by the open palmed amiability of something called a “Consultative Document.”  That suggests a dialogue with regulators but this is Euro-speak for “Proposed Rule.”  My experience is that once something gets to the Proposed Rule stage, the relationship between the regulatory and the regulated is short on consultation and long on prescription.  But hey… maybe this is different. 
Continue Reading Regulators: It’s in Their Nature

I saw the movie Imitation Game last weekend, which is the story of Alan Turing and his role in breaking the Enigma Code which shortened World War II and saved millions of lives.  (Spoiler Alert:  He did it, we won.)  Turing, played by Benedict Cumberbatch, was terrific, even if you’re not a certified “Cumberbitch.”  It got me thinking that to actually navigate this economy, you have to be pretty good at code breaking.  There’s always a lot of code speak.  First, there’s the code of each of the hermetically sealed subcultures of business and markets (recent example on my desk is a note entitled:  Response to BCBS/IOSCO Consultation Document by GFMA, AFIRE, ASIFMA and SIFMA).  We will come back to this in a later commentary, but today let’s focus on officialdom when the often intentionally obscure or misleading Orwellian doublespeak of politics and policy achieve its higher expression.  Is it getting worse?  Well, it’s certainly not getting better.
Continue Reading Breaking The Code

We here at CrunchedCredit are getting ready, as we do each year at this time, to polish up the palantir and make our predictions and business projections about the coming year.  While it can be a fun exercise, it’s actually serious business.  To start with, you need a macro view of the geopolitical situation, the markets and the economy.  To not start with a macro view is to make a choice, and a bad choice at that. 
Continue Reading Schrodinger’s Cat