August 2010

It seems that I use most of my time in this space to rail against an unthoughtful regulatory architecture that will certainly surprise and may ultimately do unintended and substantial harm to our nascent and uncertain recovery. While, from where I sit, it’s still fair to say this market continues to show little real conviction that it’s safe to get back in the water (hardly an irrational mindset) there is, periodically, some good news. So let’s make time for a bit of good news. Ta-da: It was reported recently that average consumer credit card borrowings have dropped below $5,000 per person for the first time since 2002.

This is terrific news. Perhaps not the stuff of rational giddiness, but combine that with the fact that corporate earnings are up, private cash savings rates are at recent highs, the de-leveraging is going great guns (everywhere, that is, outside of our government), house prices seem to be stabilizing in most markets even if sales continue to lag, interest rates are at ridiculously low levels and the reality of the re-set of the valuations of both the commercial and residential property stock has been internalized. A bit of optimism is not wildly inappropriate.Continue Reading Vacation Induced Optimism?

Covered bond legislation is once again a hot topic on Capitol Hill. Representative Scott Garrett (R-NJ) co-sponsored the latest iteration of his proposed legislation (United States Covered Bond Act of 2010 or H.R. 5823 (pdf)) along with Representatives Kanjorski (D-NJ) and Bachus (R-AL). The House Financial Services Committee recently voted in favor of reporting H.R. 5823 to the full House of Representatives for consideration, which hopefully will be taken up for a vote this fall shortly after the August recess.Continue Reading Covered Bonds Anyone?

Like a lot of homeowners this summer, my wife and I are looking to put new windows into our home.  We moved last October, leaving our downtown condo when the impending arrival of our second daughter promised to make things a little too tight.  A drafty winter and a number of windows that, well, just couldn’t be opened this spring demonstrated a need – and President Obama’s Energy Tax Credit cemented the deal. As I’ve learned, like almost everything associated with a new-old house, windows ain’t cheap – and the windows that qualify for the tax credit really ain’t cheap.  The increased cost takes 20 years (on average) to recoup based on the marginal energy savings (something to do with U-factors and Solar Heat Gain Coefficients according to Home Depot). But the government wouldn’t have to pay you to do it if it made good economic sense.Continue Reading Keeping PACE with Green Energy Movement

The commercial banks have largely paid it off, GM has paid it off, and even AIG says it will soon pay off the government’s emergency investment to save the Western world as we know it. As to the GSEs: not so much. We’ve got about $150 billion invested in these entities and no end in sight. In fact, as far as I can tell, there’s yet no plan in sight to ultimately come to an end in sight. Clearly, there are hard political questions about these enterprises which the political class have seen fit to dodge or kick down the road. Should they be private businesses? Conduits for subsidized housing? Both? We now know that both is the wrong answer, or at least not a very good answer. Someone said the GSEs are critical because the private markets have abandoned housing. But how can private markets compete with enterprises that have no need to make a profit, and whose debt is backstopped by the full faith and credit of the United States of America. Who’s going to compete in that market place? Moreover, you’d hope Washington is aware that many other advanced Western economies seem to do quite well without such quasi-public vehicles (not to mention without tax deductibility of mortgage payments, but that’s another story).Continue Reading The Intractible Problems of the GSEs

It’s August 6 as I write this, and the finance industry is taking a deep breath after hustling for weeks to get their comments delivered to the SEC on the SEC’s massive restructuring (pdf) of Reg AB and offering reform.  We here at Dechert had been very busy writing the CREFC comments (pdf) and I’m delighted to see that effort coming to a close (it only took 24 drafts to get to our submission).

To be clear, this is merely the opening act of what will be a protracted insect dance between business and government to settle on rules that deliver on the SEC’s goals of transparency and alignment between issuers and investors while not imperiling the restoration of a healthy CMBS market.  This process will consume the time of many of us for the indefinite future.Continue Reading And Now the Real Game Begins

Issuers, investors, rating agencies and other industry participants continue to wrestle with the fundamental changes that will come to define CMBS 2.0. Among the (many) issues raised in the "Best Practices" guidelines issued by CREFC during June’s get-together was a proposal for market-wide, programmatic change to the package of representations and warranties given by securitization issuers. Specifically, investors are calling for the formulation of a market standard list of reps and warrants, and for a standard procedure for receiving any deviations on a deal-by-deal basis. One would hope this would sate the appetite of the investing community – a community ravenous after being starved of ground lease exceptions and knowledge qualifiers during the lean years.Continue Reading Industry Considers CMBS 2.0 Rep Package