The Return of the Liquidating Trust

Recently, the Wall Street Journal highlighted the arrival of “bad loan securities.” If this is a trend, and I both hope and think it is, we clearly have to get a better deal name for these than “Insert Bank Name”, Bad Loan Securities 2012-1. Securitization of less than ideal conduit product has been with us since the birth of securitization, but reached its apogee in the RTC series, for non-performing loans, in the early to mid 1990s. That transaction architecture is being revived, and it’s about time. Both Fitch and DBRS have published criteria, or at least guidance and the other agencies are beavering away, busy working with bankers to come up with workable ratings technology.

To be clear, this is a financing tool, not a sales tool. Depending, of course, on the depths of ugliness in the pool, this is 35-55% leverage with a sponsor holding the risk piece. Nonetheless, it is peerless, durationally matched leverage that is terrifically useful for buyers of the distressed debt inventory. As the holders of non- and underperforming debt have increasingly fessed up to their marks, we’re now at a point where these transactions can be done without creating massive capital charge problems for the banks and other financial institutions holding this paper.

These structures are designed to allow an active, dynamic manager to liquidate a portfolio of loans, hence: liquidating trusts. The manager anticipates selling and resolving all of these loans and reducing them to cash in a finite and relatively short period of time. The ratings models work off individual business plans for each loan, taking into account current period income, liquidation proceeds and haircutting the bankers’ views both on the level of achievable proceeds and the time required to resolve the assets. 

But these are not easy deals and we haven’t found the magic bullet to make them easy. First, these are management intensive transactions that are dependent upon the investors’ confidence in the quality and performance capabilities of the manager. Second, the quality of data available on seasoned non- or under-performing loans tends to be a bit dodgy, and that impacts the quality of disclosure and the difficulty of delivering high quality information to manager and investor. Finally, and most frustrating, is what needs to be done to achieve tax transparency. The assets typically can’t be subjected to a REMIC election because they’re not performing. For reasons, which for the life of me I cannot fathom, our Internal Revenue Code punishes pools of mortgage loans with corporate level taxation. Why are mortgages treated as the bad boys of the financial neighborhood such that they need to be rousted by the tax cop when they gather together on the street corner? The Code doesn’t pick on other asset classes in the same way. It’s inexplicable.

When mortgage loans are pooled, the so-called taxable mortgage pool rules (TMP) apply and these rules make it nigh unto impossible, in many cases, to issue more than one time-tranched class of debt. Therefore, these vehicles tend to be somewhat inefficient with only one class of equity and one class of debt. Seriously better pricing could be obtained if the debt could be both credit- and time-tranched like in most other structured finance products. Now there are ways around these problems, but none of these fixes work terribly well. So, for instance, if the loans are really bad, so that a large enough portion can be treated effectively as equity interests in the underlying collateral rather than as mortgage loans for tax purposes, you may be OK. If somehow you can be sure the loans will all be liquidated in 3 years, you may be OK. If the vehicle can be structured as a Qualified REIT Subsidiary (although watch out for dealer income that is bad REIT income in a liquidation strategy), or if the structure is entirely offshore, the TMP problems can be avoided. Each of these fixes, though, has, shall we say, material negative externalities which limit their use.

With all that said, this structure is very useful in the right situation. It’s going to be used, and it’s going to be used extensively in 2012. It is a way to move assets that one party does not want, or cannot hold, into the hands of those who want the exposure. It’s a way to tidy up the balance sheets for financial institutions, create market velocity, move risk to investors who want it and set the table for more capital creation.

Now that’s a good news story.

 

By: Rick Jones

THE NEW NORMAL / A THEORY OF GOOD NEWS: 2012

It’s that time of year when we’re forced to think about budgets and business plans. The pointy headed types from the accounting department want to know exactly what we’ll be doing the second week of next May and, as I’m sure every one of you have said (or thought) when confronted with such bureaucratic insanity: If I knew exactly what I’d be doing and what the business environment would look like next year, I would (A) not tell you, and (B) stop doing this. But with that said, and notwithstanding my crystal ball is as opaque as the bottom of a Stygian cave, we need to plan.

So, I’ve been thinking. What the heck are we going to do next year? Is the CMBS market irrevocably broken? Was Credit Suisse trigger happy or prescient, stepping away from the market? Will investors buy bonds? Will European banks sell assets like it is the last hour of a bake sale? How about the US banks? Will banks make loans? Will we pare down the list of eager CMBS lenders to 10? Will the life companies replicate their boisterous 2010-2011? Will we finally see the bubble of refinancing we have been predicting to occur in two years for the past five, actually happen in 2012?    Will investors commit enough money to the high yield sector and will the mezzanine market really be hot? Will we ever do a covered bond? Will we ever do a CRE CDO (like I’ve been prattling along about for quite a while now)?   Live in hope; die in despair, as my daddy-in-law used to say. Will real estate people actually build new stuff and launch new projects? Do you think China would lend us a construction crane or two just for a while? Will risk retention arrive? Reg AB 2.0? What about the Volcker Rule? Will the rating agencies continue to conduct business as usual? What will the elections bring? Will the Greeks sell the Parthenon? Will the Italians sell the Tower of Pisa? Will haughty France play the poodle to Mrs. Merkel? What ultimately about Germany? Will the Europeans continue to support their champion national banks while they compete for a starring role in the next Night of the Living Dead movie? Forever?

As you can see, I’m pretty good at questions. The trouble is that, when you run a business, you’ve got to come up with some answers. As I’ve said to my colleagues around here, we need to have a view. Not taking a view is taking a view and no matter how daunting the prognostication game can be, you gotta do it.

So, with that said, this is what I think.

·         No deep recession for the United States (if there is, ignore everything below).

·         The job situation will continue to steadily improve, but the new normal of structural unemployment will be 6-7%, not 4-5%. The new normal of full employment notwithstanding, this will lead to continued firming of the demand for commercial real estate space.

·         Private deleveraging will continue, housing will finally make a bottom, and CRE markets will modestly expand.

·         Here in the U.S., we won’t fix the debt problem anytime soon. I hope Keynes was right about aggregate demand and government spending, but I doubt it.

·         EU banks will sell U.S. and EU assets

·         U.S. banks will sell assets in a less panicky way – portfolios will be balanced

·         The EU crisis will have its own “trading range”. The EU will not collapse, no one will leave, but it will not get healthy, either. No European economic growth for the foreseeable future, or until they finally learn high taxation, protectionism and a massive regulatory apparatus is not a recipe for growth.

·         EU countries will not let national champion banks fail, period.

·         There will be a global tightening of credit and U.S. banks will have a material competitive advantage, if our own regulators don’t do more stupid things.

·         Kicking the can down the road on bad loans is getting closer to its final denouement. More loans will get resolved, loan sales, real restructurings and rescue capital trades will accelerate

·         Structured finance will be used broadly to facilitate disintermediation. Liquidating trusts, seasoned low leverage CMBS, and CRE CDOs will all be broadly used.

·         There will be a CMBS business. Modestly better than 2011. What’s broken will trend toward being fixed – bid/ask spreads will come in. Rating agency models will migrate to levels at which capital formation can occur, and the gap between the CMBS bid and the portfolio bid will come in as the portfolio bid will simply be insufficient to deliver all the capital required by a modestly growing CRE sector.

·         Further, regulatory action will continue to be characterized by unintended consequences being markedly more costly than the value of the intended good. This will continue to threaten the recovery and all of the good stuff above.

·         The election matters, hugely. If the market concludes that Mr. Obama will remain in the White House and the Democrats may get more seats in the House and Senate, much of the good news above is materially trumped.

·         Macro/global tail risks are at an all time high. Really bad stuff could completely shuffle the deck.

 

So what does all this mean for planning? We will see increased transactional activity in the CRE and structured finance space. Our clients are likely to be busy. There will be a premium on ingenuity, and innovation and scale will be rewarded.

 

So, here’s my plan: Go all in.  We’ll grow. We’ll invest in innovation and deliver scale. When the risk/reward traffic lights are flashing green and the downside risks, while pretty catastrophic, still look tailish, it’s an easy call.

 

I’m looking forward to 2012; I think.