ASF 2011 kicked off yesterday, February 6, at the Orlando World Center Marriott. Dechert attorneys Malcolm Dorris, Ralph Mazzeo, Patrick Dolan, John Timperio, Cindy Williams, Andrew Pontano, Lorien Golaski and I are hosting a cocktail party for clients and friends here this evening.
Congressman Scott Garrett (R-NJ), Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), delivered the featured address this morning, February 7. In his new role as Chairman, Congressman Garrett will be a key player in the debate over the future of the GSEs, the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act and the continued development of a legislative framework for a covered bonds market in the U.S.
Congressman Garrett noted in his remarks that the portfolios of the GSEs are a combined $1.5 trillion– a book with a lot of interest rate risk and a lot of unrealized gain. He said this portfolio needs to be unwound sooner rather than later. He wants to see the GSEs on the federal budget– on the books of the U.S. government– and he noted that in private industry, there has been a movement toward on-balance sheet and questioned why this wasn’t so in Washington.
Knowing his audience, he stressed that securitization has to play a huge, vital, integral part in the resurrection of the mortgage market, and he said that securitization is vital to the movement of capital around the country. He noted the unsustainability of FHA insuring 50% of new originations and the government underwriting 95% of the mortgage market. The Congressman stated he is firmly committed to a purely private U.S. mortgage market over time, free of government subsidies or guarantees. He acknowledged concerns associated with a purely private market but also said there are competing concerns with models that include government support.
Addressing assertions from critics, the Congressman asked whether home price increases and higher down payments would be so bad (possible results of the 30-yr fixed rate mortgage not surviving without a government guarantee). He questioned whether the government is able to price catastrophic credit risk and pointed to a shoddy track record. He posited that there are other ways to keep a TBA market viable aside from a government guarantee and noted that the government steps in at the end of the day perhaps because it is allowed to, and that allowing it to increases the chances the government will do so. He noted that a discussion of servicing standards in connection with QRM never came up in crafting Dodd-Frank and suggests regulators not take the servicing issue into account. In the Risk Retention breakout session later in the morning, Tom Boemio (Sr. Project Manager, Policy, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) concurred and asked: Why have servicing standards in connection with the highest quality loans only– and not the rest?
The Congressman said there is no role for government assistance except in connection with first-time home buyers, and such assistance should be on-budget and transparent. Finally, he said that the government has to play a big role because the private sector isn’t– the old chicken-egg thing. [His prepared remarks can be found here].
At the February 7 General Session that followed, Martin Hughes of Redwood Trust further addressed the chicken and the egg issue noting that "uber government support is stifling the return of private securitization." He acknowledged that government bids are attractive and there’s been no incentive for banks to sell to non-agency, and that reducing the government’s role would be a game changer. Addressing the circular problem, he did note that if the government backs out before the private sector is up and running, there are sure to be problems but he suggested the status quo needs to be tested. Stating that "issuance velocity leads to issuance velocity," he also noted there are too few prime loans to get real issuance velocity. Hughes agreed that, yes, investors are mad, and investors have demands and opinions with respect to servicing practices but he believes those demands can be met and that prime jumbo can have safe attractive yields.
Hughes summarized the general sentiment by stating we need the new rules of the road– final rules so that market participants can adapt and move ahead– because uncertainty has been an enormous headwind. And we have uncertainty as to what the rules are and, in addition, how those rules are to be interpreted. Stay tuned for more from ASF.
By Laurie Nelson.
